Worked from home for the past 2 days, and went to meetings that lasted not more than 1hr. so while the workload didnt reduce, it was indeed a relatively chill way to close off the week. I have not been very consistent lately with my trend trading, and also not disciplined in cutting loss too. so hopefully i can review what happened the past 2months and not repeat it. but generally feeling less stressed, so need to rest while i can.
Trading transactions
PanUnited. BOUGHT I have been looking at this counter for a super long time. this is not a pure TA entry. in fact it was more FA and maybe FOMO?
reasons to buy:
- top cement supplier; own quarry to supply aggregates;good logistic capabilities & innovation arm.
- price above 200ma & 50ma.
YomaStrategic. BOUGHT entered a bit too early. but its a small quantity. reason for entry is price abv 200ma. (pure TA)
Trading positions
Thaibev. probably long overstayed in this counter. observe 1 more week before acting.
Yingli. dont seem to be pushing higher, will exit next week.
Investment Holdings
Olam. entered on 3rd week of 2019 as an income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind it is documented here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends as i wait for capital appreciation.
The idea is for entry:
- Good sustainable Dividend of ~4%
- Better cashflow than its peers
- No foreseeable technology disrupting its business
Exit will be when:
- Dividend cannot be sustained due to negative news
- cashflow drops below its peers
- Creditable disruption to its business appears.
DBS. Entered on 2nd week of 2019 as income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind initiating a position is documented here & here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends while i waited for capital gains to be realised.
Entry was because of:
- Management. Comparatively better management than the other banks, proactively absorbing technology to avoid disruption.
- Attractive dividend yield (5%, $1.2) that is sustainable.
- No foreseeable disruptive technology in sight.
Exit will be:
- when dividend cannot be sustained above 2.6%
- Foreseeable disruptive technology to its business spotted
QAF. Entered on 13th week of 2019 as income investment, with high yield and potential upside. The idea is that declaring 4c dividend (consistent with yield since 2012) quashed the perception that it will cut dividends for following months due to the earlier drop in profitability and forced selling of high returns business in Malaysia.
Entry was because of:
Entry was because of:
- maintained dividend yield ( DPU 5c)
- attractive dividend yield 6.1% entered at 81.5c
- no foreseeable disruptive technology
- when there are indicators that dividends have to be cut
- disruptive technology in the horizon, but no corporate action to adopt it
Singapore O&G. Income investment. There was a bit of FOMO, because just as i was about to buy after considering so long, it suddenly breakout higher, then of course at the end of the week... price headed down. But it is alright, because i am looking at this for a longer horizon.
Reasons why i was looking to buy this counter was:
- net cash counter
- sustainable dividends
- high value service
- near IPO price
- higher dividend than other similar counters
- Disputes/unhappiness among partners/doctors.
The dividend is above 4% and there is room for more growth. Will exit when capital appreciation outstrips dividend growth, or when there are long-term decisions by the company management that reduces profitability (e.g. enter into related businesses).
Purchased counter with yield above 5% for Q2 2019 to increase the yield
Mapletree Industrial Trust. Income investment (5.6% yield). Reasons for buying in:
- based on properties owned, they have the least ratio of properties in the far west of Singapore, compared to Ascendas reit, Aims Amp, Sabana, ESR, Soilbuild. properties in west of SG are quite challenging to rent out.
- price-trend has been upwards for a long time.
- DPU trends upwards
- With its closest comparable (ascendas) market has priced them similarly.
- exposure to data centre business (in demand)
downside
- unexpired land lease of its properties are 37.2 years whereas ascendas is 45.5 years.
Just a side note, my after buying analysis actually shows Ascendas is the better reit to buy ... so maybe that will be explored later in the year.
CapitaR China Trust. income investment (6.6% yield at cost). Looking at the overseas retail reit market for some diversification away from pure SG market. concentration risks. Compared with the overseas retail reit (less Lippo malls trust because of the uncertainty in indonesian policies), such as Mapletree North Asia Commercial Tr. Reasons for buying:
- larger number of properties under its managements compared to the others
- price is uptrending
- DPU is slightly uptrending over the years
- like-for-like comparison with MNACT, it has a significantly better yield; if compared with fortune greater difference
downside:
- China-US trade conflict
- Chinese penchant for ecommerce
not the cheapest buy but it is hard to catch the lowest. might as well start accumulating dividends.
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