[week summary] 2017 w48- regrouping my thoughts

Thoughts

On leave on monday and friday.... these leave days i really slack away instead of doing something useful, bad bad bad! Anyway i was browsing counters on friday afternoon, spotted Starhub(still okay) and SPH possible reversal patterns, but i did not enter the positions because I haven't went into an indepth study of reversal plays, so will avoid this risk all together until I get a certain understanding.

Action

MM2 Asia. SOLD. Bought this counter(see here) as a speculative counter on uptrend, but it has been "hovering" a bit. With the price so close and touching the SL, decided to to pull the trigger and exit it.

Anyway MM2 is still bullish biased as the price is still abv 50ma and 200ma, i was just thinking if I placed my support just on a support, and also entered too early because i had a FOMO("fear of missing out") moment. I also remembered my friend tell me about the not so good rewards to risks, and the SL was not good! definitely cannot forget about this!

Holdings

Global Investments. Income assets. My avg px for this counter is 15.2c, I have averaged down on this counter once as it hit a trigger (but it was against my rules for scaling-up!!). 

TA wise, it is undecided but slightly bearish. price is slightly below 50/200MA :( for now i will not add anymore of this, because the movement is too slow, and I am in fact having a paper loss for this (psychological burden).

FA-wise, the counter announced that it has reduced it's DPU to 0.6c (earlier was .7c then .65c). Assuming it is going to be 0.6c for the next 2 distribution, then my yield will be 7.8% (not too shabby i guess). Though it is a "bad" move for me, as it will reduce my expected income, but i thought it was a wiser move by the management as their earlier DPU  was not sustainable. This counter's EPS>DPU,  but with this move at least the DPU will be equals to the last know EPS.

Overall, I am a bit undecided on this counter, because i am in it long termwise, but the fundamentals seemed to have deteriorated. If i were to sell off, i would have a net loss of abut $300 which isnt too much for cutting my risk exposure.

 

Golden Agri Resources. Value asset. One of the strategy i was employing, was to buy small holdings of different counters that are oversold for some time, so that subsequently when it is rotated to that sector, I can catch on to the rally quickly without looking for an entry set-up. This counter is part of my strategy, I tried to scale-up on this counter but because i did not stick to my scaling up rule, I had to reduce the holdings when losses got too big for me (see here). 

TA-wise, this counter has bottomed, and is range bound between  37c to 40c. 

FA-wise, is trading at 0.75X NAV. while there is some dividend while i wait for it to grow. This counter is in the palm oil biz, which a lot of products are using as a raw material. I do see that they are doing quite a bit of R&D to have high yielding palm trees, so i guess it is just a waiting game for me.

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust. Income asset. This is currently my largest holdings, partially because i divested most for cash also... LOL. I have scaled-up on this counter 4 times, all adhering to my scaling-up rules.

TA-wise, this counter is on an uptrend, with price just recently breaking the bearish countertrend. Bullish biased because price is above 200ma, and I am hoping for a short term rally as price just emerge out of the 50ma.

FA-wise, DPU is increasing marginally each quarter. risk lies in forex risks because they earn in HKD and RMB. qualitatively, I don't see hongkongers changing their lifestyle as i still read about how expensive it is for hongkongers to own their tiny apartments, and they spend a good part of their time outside so there is tendency to consume at the malls.

Overall, i am in it for a relative long term, but with Hong Kong losing its lustre to other 1st tier chinese cities, i am keeping an eye on this counter just in case.

Suntec REIT. Income asset. Recently it has hit the price with some buffer but i am adverse to adding more.

TA-wise, uptrending as price is abv 200ma, recently it also broke above the $2 resistance and looks set to form its support at $2.

FA-wise, counter has a mix of office and retail space. DPU has been mixed, most recently dropping... but nonetheless the counter price maintained even increasing after XD (which means i got free money!) hearsay it is due to bullish sentiments on office spaces. currently trading just below the NAV, i think it offers a decent yield at 4.75%. which is still higher than a number of bluechip counters.