Sunday, 9 October 2016

[Lesson] Trading Set-ups learnt

Foreword
"Buying low and selling high" sounds so intuitive and almost always uttered by trading newbies ignoramuses that do not even trade, but for myself, i really feel that this must be an oversimplification of the equity markets' actions which is an aggregation of human psyche.

*i will add the charts to illustrate the setups, subsequently*
Main
Uptrending counters. Safer types to trade, because you enter on pullbacks, and exit when trend is invalidated, hovers/ timeframe has a dead crossover.In this case, it is a " buy high, sell low"
 
example using Cityneon

Bullish breakouts. the textbook type of setup would need to see a period of consolidation and accumulation (by the big boys), before a suddenly spurt of price increases over a short period of time. the gains over the period of time makes it highly rewarding based on ROI. however, the effort needed to look out for such counters is large if you have no software, and the risks lies in big boys manipulating counters, shaking down poor retailers multiple times.in this case "buy high, sell higher"

 example using shengsiong

Reversal play. The riskiest of set-ups that i know of thus far, because you are buying into a counter which is considered down trending, however the rewards could be a multiples of your initial outlay, overcompensating for earlier losses. in this case only we get a "buy low, sell high"


example using noble

Conclusion
For candlestick patterns, resistance and support, moving averages and stuff, are more like tools that help us identify the set-ups and the more tools stacked and reporting the same thing, the higher the confidence level/ probability the trade is.

Contrary to my earlier preference for fundamental analysis, I do find technical analysis complementary to fundamental analysis. For trading, it helps to identify trades to enter; for investments, it helps to time entries close to the lows.

personally, i recommend fundamental analysis as a method to shortlist counters, with technical analysis as a way to enter or exit counters.



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