[weekly review] 2019 w23

Thoughts
I took some loss last week, and exited some positions because they were not trending well.


so my current trading positions are

SATS. next week exit


ThaiBev. Bullish, continue to hold!


YingLi. observe next week's movement, if no move can exit.


I exited the follow Accordia, Fu Yu ( too long), Wilmar. these deeper losses could be avoided if i monitored my positions a bit more, and took a look

Accordia. good exit


Fu Yu. exit because have been holding it for a long time


Wilmar. should have exited earlier and could have protected more profits


My investments are not so positive after the dividend season. This could be an opportunity to buy more i guess?

Holdings (investment)

Olam. entered on 3rd week of 2019 as an income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind it is documented here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends as i wait for capital appreciation.

The idea is for entry:

• Good sustainable Dividend of ~4%
• Better cashflow than its peers 
• No foreseeable technology disrupting its business

Exit will be when:

• Dividend cannot be sustained due to negative news
• cashflow drops below its peers
• Creditable disruption to its business appears.

DBS.entered on 2nd week of 2019 as income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind initiating a position is documented here & here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends while i waited for capital gains to be realised.

Entry was because of:

• Management. Comparatively better management than the other banks, proactively absorbing technology to avoid disruption.
• Attractive dividend yield (5%, $1.2) that is sustainable.
• No foreseeable disruptive technology in sight.

Exit will be:

• when dividend cannot be sustained above 2.6%
• Foreseeable disruptive technology to its business spotted

QAF. Entered on 13th week of 2019 as income investment, with high yield and potential upside. The idea is that declaring 4c dividend (consistent with yield since 2012) quashed the perception that it will cut dividends for following months due to the earlier drop in profitability and forced selling of high returns business in Malaysia.

Entry was because of:

• maintained dividend yield ( DPU 5c)
• attractive dividend yield 6.1% entered at 81.5c
• no foreseeable disruptive technology

exit will be:

• when there are indicators that dividends have to be cut
• disruptive technology in the horizon, but no corporate action to adopt it

Singapore O&G.  Income investment. There was a bit of FOMO, because just as i was about to buy after considering so long, it suddenly breakout higher, then of course at the end of the week... price headed down.  But it is alright, because i am looking at this for a longer horizon. 

Reasons why i was looking to buy this counter was:

• net cash counter
• sustainable dividends 
• high value service
• near IPO price
• higher dividend than other similar counters

Downside: 

• Disputes/unhappiness among partners/doctors.

The dividend is above 4% and there is room for more growth. Will exit when capital appreciation outstrips dividend growth, or when there are long-term decisions by the company management that reduces profitability (e.g. enter into related businesses).