[weekly review] w13

Thoughts

I missed out last week's review as i was overwhelmed with work. and also there were some family commitment. so today reach home.. faster chiong some updates and review.

Transactions

AEM. sold because hit my SL. if there is a good set-up will come back and try again.

QAF. Bought as income investment. QAF has fallen significantly since its highs of $1.5 (early 2017). This week, it announced 4c dividend which is same as its previous years (5c per year since 2012). this effectively gives slightly more than 6% of dividend and potentially 50% capital upside. potential downsides: forex risks, lack of action to push market gains, exposure to malaysian market (political instability), perceived less aggressive mgmt, barriers of entry to new markets

Holdings

APAC Realty. continue to hold, and let it pan out.

Fu Yu. exit by wednesday next week. it has traded sideways for too long and has "expired"

SIIC Env. break lower, so better run away

ThaiBev. will plan a scale-up as criteria hit!

Wilmar. New support is well tested. will hold on and see how this pans out. but will exit if time comes and it has not trade higher 

Ying Li. set up is spotted. looks like once hit green line, can scale-up.

INVESTING

Holdings 

Olam (23%). entered on 3rd week of 2019 as an income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind it is documented here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends as i wait for capital appreciation.

The idea is for entry:

• Good sustainable Dividend of ~4%
• Better cashflow than its peers 
• No foreseeable technology disrupting its business

Exit will be when:

• Dividend cannot be sustained due to negative news
• cashflow drops below its peers
• Creditable disruption to its business appears.

DBS (23%).entered on 2nd week of 2019 as income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind initiating a position is documented here & here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends while i waited for capital gains to be realised.

Entry was because of:

• Management. Comparatively better management than the other banks, proactively absorbing technology to avoid disruption.
• Attractive dividend yield (5%, $1.2) that is sustainable.
• No foreseeable disruptive technology in sight.

Exit will be:

• when dividend cannot be sustained above 2.6%
• Foreseeable disruptive technology to its business spotted

QAF(14%). Entered on 13th week of 2019 as income investment, with high yield and potential upside. The idea is that declaring 4c dividend (consistent with yield since 2012) quashed the perception that it will cut dividends for following months due to the earlier drop in profitability and forced selling of high returns business in Malaysia.

Entry was because of:

• maintained dividend yield ( DPU 5c)
• attractive dividend yield 6.1% entered at 81.5c
• no foreseeable disruptive technology

exit will be:

• when there are indicators that dividends have to be cut
• disruptive technology in the horizon, but no corporate action to adopt it