Saturday, 5 May 2018

[Lessons] Blast from past! Confirmation Biased is REAL! be careful

TL;DR
Once you buy in a counter, unless you are mindful and have some trade/investment plans, whatever your analysis you make is biased!
Image result for praying emoji
Background
This week, tech counters had big LS!
I see quite a number of investingnote people "supporting" and trying to flagrantly defend their bearish tech counters. while some people were gloating at them, and itried futilely to try to "wake them up", I think those who are heavily vested are unlikely to budge.

Thought
This was a good opportunity to reflect! and I looked back into my trades and investments, and  realized that no matter TA or FA, once you vested in the company there is tendency for your analysis to be biased towards your positions! This is call confirmation biased!  To survive and live with certainty, our brains seek out patterns in the real world and try to explain the unknown. and these type of explanation are the worst to make your investments on!

Illustration - Kris Energy
If you follow my blog or have read it before, my single biggest loss was in this counter! After that, i believe in cutting losing counters fast and letting winners run :)

anyway here it goes!
Initiating position post (here) you see actually i did some FA  and some nooby TA!

2nd post (here) a bit regret, but i "convictioned" LOL

3rd post (here) still hopeful, even hoped it "turbo-ed up" LOLOL

4th  post (here) Hesitation post

5th post (here), Cut loss when it became too painful. yes it was very painful :(

conclusion
 As you can see, back then before my investing note days, and i didn't know to how save layouts of charts and had not much of a plan, my assessment and analysis of the counter keeps moving and moving and moving! until i realized OMFG i lose so much $$$ better get out otherwise cannot sleep! Hope anyone reading can learn from my mistakes!






No comments:

Post a Comment