[weekly summary] 2017 W25

Foreword

The past 2 weeks, I have been proactively scaling down on my positions. Perhaps the market (or the counters i have been looking at) is range trading. So it is going to be harder to find strong up trending counters, the kind of counters i would like to be in a position with. I have cut down my positions by ~50%

I posted about my top 10 losses since i started trading (here) and there was a lot of comments and discussion on investing notes which i really liked. because of the comments that didn't made sense to me, it didn't matter much to me, however for the comments that were rationale and well articulated, i gave it a second thought :)

My next move is  to rebalance my portfolio. understandably i have gone a bit too heavy on the trading side, so i would like to put some focus on the income assets ( hospitality reits?)

Action Counters

Hanwell. Sold. Perhaps i am the weak holders that got shaken out. If you look at the chart, the down volume is very small compared to the up volume. but either way maybe i have placed my SL too tightly or my position is too big,

MM2.Sold. on the big drop, profitable still, maybe i will wait for the next breakout to make an entry. this will protect my downside because it is possible for this counter to range trade, don;t want to be in this situation.

Accordia Golf Trust. Sold. similarly following my plan to safeguard my capital. this triggered me to rethink how i should do my income investing.

Cogent.Sold. counter break down, so i had to exit as my trading idea was invalidated. perhaps, it tested the support too often and the buyers got exhausted. this time the shortist won. will keep this in my observation though.

iFast. Bought. Got in before them announcing the the shares trading platform for SGX. i was in fear of missing out!~ not going to kid anyone. but anyway, i will exit if it cuts down too much of 5ma!

this is Speculative.

For Speculative - (TA100) 20/50ma pure technicals with setup ( trend/ breakout/reversal)- exit when price cuts down 20ma ( added this because i need to remind myself of the exit strategy and not confuse speculative with growth counters)

Bestworld. A bit bearish, so wait for it to break my support before i admit mistake and exit.

Golden Agri-Resources. waiting for the trade idea to play out, but if it trades range for 3weeks ( mid July still same) i will exit


For Growth/Value -(TA50/FA50)50 & 200ma, macro-outlook, set-up for entry, needs a narrative (e.g. semiconductor stock run/ properties bottom out, fantastic outlook), tend towards 0.6-1.2x NAV

China Aviation. TA wise there is a build up beofre the 1.72 line that is waiting for a breakout, i am bullish on this as the price is above the 200ma and i am in a a bit of profit.
FA-wise, China infra spending for up and coming cities will fuel domestic flights which will consume aviation fuel that this company has a monopolistic grip on the business. 
Overall, i am looking for the buy signal when the price breakout bullish to add some more.



Income (TA25/FA75) Good  yield (> 3.5%) and increasing DPU, uptrending/stable prices (200ma). at discount to NAV (~0.7 to 0.8) Macro outlook is positive.  Exit when price cuts down 100ma. Add when there is a setup.

Chip Eng Seng. TA-wise counter trend broken like a possible entry, will study how i can add more next week!

FA-wise counter still can buy as low price ~0.6x NAV with nearly 6% div yield. the revenue and income is a bit erratic. but the total liabilities increased at a slower rate of assets, so can add more!

overall: can add! because the TA and FA converges in opinion.

Mapletree GCC. TA-wise looks like it will breakdown, cannot scale up!

FA-wise no change, so can keep it while i collect attractive dividends, will consider adding when there is a set up.

Suntec Reit. FA-wise, this counter is 0.89x NAV with 5.2% dividend yield, and gives me commercial exposure. the DPU is also increasing and also the increase in assets is faster than growth in total liability. though there is some head winds in the office and retail area, the idea here is to catch some upside and dividends while waiting.  

TA-wise, i entered because i see some build-up and also unusually high bullish volume, it could be some corporate action? the risk to rewards looks good too!