Tuesday, 14 February 2017

Mid week trade action

 Foreword
 Just a quick post on the action i made, because i made it start of the week.
Do your due diligence please!

Counters
Exited China aviation.loss $164.5
Exited Jumbo $261.82

the above were as discussed on my previous post (here)

Noble. entered at the price of 19.8c.... i entered because of the confirmation of the bullish trend, going for the breakout.

The weekly chart shows the previous week as a bullish candle, where i expect some flow over... and it was confirmed today, so i entered in today. the price is also above 40wMA (200dMA), which is a bullish indicator.


Daily chart wise, the volume for today was reduced... but still bullish as the the candlestick pattern still has substantial body. what might also be a catalysts play would be the interest in Sinochem to buy an equity stake in Noble (see here).
At 19.8c entry price, there is some slight price "chasing", however this is the 3rd "triple top pattern forming" and with those volumes we are looking at from the previous days it looks like it is poised to break 21c barrier and go higher. hence i am bullish. but i will maintain trailing stop loss of the daily MA20.


Overall, N21 is finally priced abv the MA200, this could explain the strong move upwards, and i am looking to add up on N21 with the first pullback if it proves that it is making a reversal. On the FA front, the price to book price is  right now around 0.5, plus interest by sinochem group to make equity stake in N21 to help boost its distribution  of oil & gas products suggest that the surge is not only due to speculation but there are some foundations to these positivity. FOR THE LONG RUN! to 35c and beyond!


Ocbc*updated on 15 feb night*
OCBC took a large gap down this morning after trading consecutive sessions positively. relooking the daily chart, it actually shows this was not to be unexpected because there was a reversal indicator candlestick  just the day before, and this was confirmed today, except the gap down was huge for such type of blue-chip counters. looking deeper in this candlestick, though it is bearish biased, the body of the candlestick is very thin, suggesting that there is a fight ongoing.


zooming into higher resolution with an hourly chart, that the large volume sell down was from the morning session, probably retailers over-reacting and smart monies exaggerating by causing such a large gap down to collect OCBC counters at cheaper prices. you can see that towards the end of the day, there was strong buy back, either by shortist covering position, or people buying as it enters an area of value " long on support. so tomorrow i am expecting some sort of bound up? or side ways trade, but of course i will be carefully looking at this counter because my initial positive $500 has been reduced to less than $100 profits.


overall i am still very bullish about OCBC, however i would not be entering more as I have sufficient exposure to this counter at present, slightly less than 10% of my investable funds
. but i find the dividend payout stable and increasing for the past years. this i am considering to make it  a core stock of my portfolio.

Spackman. re-entered Spackman on 15 Feb 2017, at the price of 18.4c.
This counter is displaying very nice chart pattern, this is considered entering at a pullback ( area of value). Besides chart pattern, you can see bullish volumes and being close to MA50 ( critical dynamic support). Foreseeably, it will range trade along the the 17.5c to 19.9c a bit longer before breaking out ( give it max of 1 month), or a breakout soon (within the week). once this is invalidate, i will exit.



Spotting counters * update further*
Moya (spotted on 13 Feb night) daily chart as below.


*this counter experienced a 10% surge today* counter has runned... so wait for the next pullback for entry. DO NOT CHASE, it is too risky

Fragrance. On pure technical play, this counter is bullish, as price is above the 200MA. It is also experiencing the first pullback and i am expecting a bounce around the MA20 to MA50.  the price of 17.4c makes this a likely candidate of a 20.5c play. however the FA is not strong though.. it is currently marginally over priced (p/b ratio of ~1.2) and a bit too overhyped ( P/E of 56!!!!) . So this will really be purely speculative, so tread carefully if you do enter.


Analysing for a friend
 Singpost. One of my friend took a position on singpost and is currently in the red with 1+K of loss. short of telling him to cut his position, because that is what i will and would do.... i decided to help me understand the possibilities that might happen. so what i see of Singapore on the weekly timeframe is a obvious downtrend, and there were several weeks with bearish volumes to couple with down moving price. just this week alone ( just 40% past) the volume far exceeds other weeks. so i would say that those the price is bottoming near a support, i think at best the counter will hover around the support instead of bouncing back. what are your thoughts?

No comments:

Post a Comment