[weekly review] 2019 w7 - bear is gone? i think so but bulls might not exactly be back though

Thoughts

Over dinner with my friend, i realised i have hit one of my financial milestones as of today! I'm happy! similarly last week was also an interesting once because several of those counters i scanned... had a breakout... and of course not all were sustained! But it pointed me to the fact that STI is now above 200MA, and it is now that i up my acceptable cumulative risks to 1.5X my monthly savings.

with price above 200ma, uptrend likely or else sideway trade... , but in the short term there might be some pull back as it hits a major resistance! so use this info to trade the markets!

TRADING

Positions

FUYU(200). consolidating abv 20c strong support! There is a good chance it will break higher, so stay tuned, but it does not, just run away!

Jardine C&C(400). uptrend still there, but Jardine is re-testing the earlier resistance-turned support. Just need to be wary if it breaks lower, i have to run.

Sunningdale tech (350)Break out this week, now consolidating. going to hold as it is likely to break higher!

ThaiBev(350). Friday gap up is like some one set a rocket! wonder what holds for it over the next few weeks, will observe... will it continue to trend up?

Wilmar(350). Broke out of more than 1 year range, and retested the 3.25 resistance-turned support! Likely to see this go higher, so need to hold this!

Ying Li. consolidating, will need to observe. if it breaks lower will just exit, to free up liquidity 

INVESTING

Holdings 

Olam (14%). entered on 3rd week of 2019 as an income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind it is documented here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends as i wait for capital appreciation.

The idea is for entry:

• Good sustainable Dividend of ~4%
• Better cashflow than its peers 
• No foreseeable technology disrupting its business

Exit will be when:

• Dividend cannot be sustained due to negative news
• cashflow drops below its peers
• Creditable disruption to its business appears.

DBS (23%).entered on 2nd week of 2019 as income investment with element of growth. The thinking behind initiating a position is documented here & here. I wanted to enjoy good dividends while i waited for capital gains to be realised.

Entry was because of:

• Management. Comparatively better management than the other banks, proactively absorbing technology to avoid disruption.
• Attractive dividend yield (5%, $1.2) that is sustainable.
• No foreseeable disruptive technology in sight.

Exit will be:

• when dividend cannot be sustained above 2.6%
• Foreseeable disruptive technology to its business spotted