[weekly summary] 2017 W24 Gotta do some cutting next week

Foreword

This week the market was quite bearish. My aim for the next few weeks will be to cut down my positions, Keep things liquid while i look out for some income assets to accumulate ( to maintain my income assets at 50% of assets)

Counter Action: Entries & Exits

Hanwell. looking like it some build-up before the previous highs, this counter is trading below NAV(x 0.75). i don;t know too much of the company fundamentally but looking at the brief description, i think it looks like some corporate action coming to realise it's fair value... so i think 44c is not too far off. i would see it as a speculative play.

Golden Agri. The trading idea is a reversal trade, as you can see, GAR is not too far from its all-time low....and we can actually see some recovery going on. I opine this coming upswing has a high likelihood to break the 42c resistance. I have set a stop loss around 34c.or when time 2months have past and no upward action spotted. I would say this is a growth play.

Valuetronics. Exited with slight loss because i spotted a bearflag, better to be safe than risk my capital. from a 10% profits to slight loss.... oh well, but i guess those who are inside please be careful. 


Venture Corp. Exited this counter realizing the 50% capital gain with 2 years of 50c dividends. makes this a 60% gain counter for 1.25yrs. i have been considering to exit this counter, because i feel that there is limited upside, and it was not worth risking another 7-8% for just a 10% upside. when price returns to normalcy ( yield is about 5%) i will relook at this counter again :)


For Growth/Value -(TA50/FA50)50 & 200ma, macro-outlook, set-up for entry, needs a narrative (e.g. semiconductor stock run/ properties bottom out, fantastic outlook), tend towards 0.6-1.2x NAV

China Aviation. I had some indecisiveness over this counters in the past weeks ( see here). However as at a longer time frame with a bigger picture view, I have come to realized that if i were to have exit earlier, I would have exited too early because this was just signs of consolidation, and i would have missed a potentially huge surge and breaking the 1.73 resistance.

Cogent. SImilarly, i also had some indecisiveness on this counter in my previous wee4ks ( W22 and W23). however looking at the bigger picture, i can actually see a large price consolidation, and i believe in the next few weeks, there will be some action as price touches 50ma and 200ma. where it will possibly breakout further. however if price breaks below the support of 79c significantly, then i will exit this counter to regain some of my liquidity.

Bestworld. The pullback volume is weak, and seems like it will end the counter trend soon. will hold onto this counter. 

For Speculative - (TA100) 50ma pure technicals with setup ( trend/ breakout/reversal)- exit when price cuts down 20ma ( added this because i need to remind myself of the exit strategy and not confuse speculative with growth counters)

MM2. Entered this counter purely on a speculative basis, and now there is a strong pullback. I have two options: i) to exit ; ii) to hold onto this counter as i let the counter play out its course of a pullback. i will be choosing to exit within next week for capital preservation because it seems like the pullback seems quite strong, but trigger is at  56.5/56c.

Income (TA25/FA75) Good  yield (> 3.5%) and increasing DPU, uptrending/stable prices (200ma). at discount to NAV (~0.7 to 0.8) Macro outlook is positive. Exit when price cuts down 100ma.

Mapletree GCC. nothing has changed much for this counter, except right now there is some buildup before the 1.10 area. I am bullish inclined on this counter. while the fundamentals have not changed much for this counter, i am in it long term for the dividends.

Accordia. Price has cut below the 200ma, I'm exiting on monday as per plan. Will keep it in my watch list, as i think fundamentally there has been little change in the counter. I should have exited when the price dropped below 50MA, and bounced downwards when it try to break the 50ma, could have saved me some 1 k worth. EXIT on monday.

Chip Eng Seng. Entering into a counter trend, fundamentally there should be no change to chipengseng, i will possibly scale up when it breaks the countertrend ( if it does not dip too low) otherwise i will continue to hold onto the counter on the basis that i can collect its dividend of 4c each year.