Foreword
Been a bit tired from work lately and decided to put my midweek updates on investingnote, allowing me to update as and when my thoughts come in.
I'm also looking out for good quality income assets ( can be REITs/High div plays).
I have some thoughts on how the markets price a stock ( above or below NAV) from a fundamental analysis perspective. However, havent been feeling too well to think thru and pen my thoughts down and then test it out again. so this is something i will be looking forward to do soon(item 1) and then also to pen down my strategy to trade/invest(item 2). I ramble on too long.
Counter action
Valuetronics. semiconductor rally, pure technicals. with a price 2xNAV (normal for "hot stocks) and P/E of 12.5. There seems to be room for further upside, potentially 98.5c- $1.3(PE of 15 to 20). Entry was triggered by the "build-up pattern"(on left side of pic bellow), that did indeed happened on XB. the weekly candlestick is very bullish ( long body ), i opine however that it will continue to be bullish as it moves towards 90ish cents price? and likelt to consolidate or enter a counter-trend. I'm in this position like a small position and look forward to scale up further on this counter when a setup presents itself.
Bestworld. pure technical. PE 23, 8.2xNAV pricing. this is fuelled by the china growth narrative. I'm in this punt for a short term as i saw it as an opportunity to enter this long term up trending counter on dips ( if u look at longer trend). the market is bullish on this counter and i will try my luck, anyway i have a very small position in this counter, so it is alright.
MM2 Asia. high PE and trading at 7x NAV, my patience is paying off, and i won't exit the counter yet unless there is a reversal indicator. While it looks very speculative and MM2 probably has quite strong management and is seen as aggressive is growing their business, so i can envision it carrying forward some more upside and maybe 2 more scale-ups for me.
Cogent. This is speculative counter to me, as the growth counter has probably played out and most of the "growth" has been priced-in already. anyway, this counter to me is more bearish now than i am bullish, as the micro trend seems to point at a lower high, and not sure if it will goto a lower low. the bearish volume is also quie high, so i need to be weary of this counter's movement and cut loss if needed.
For Growth/Value -(TA50/FA50)50 & 200ma, macro-outlook, set-up for entry, needs a narrative (e.g. semiconductor stock run/ properties bottom out, fantastic outlook), tend towards 0.6-1.2x NAV
China Aviation. FA-wise, nothing has changed much since (then), the PE is acceptable and not overly high, while the price is 1.5x NAV (still got lots of room) and i expect it to slowly head towards 2.1 (PE of ~1.9). Chinese domestic flights are expected to be growing with increasing affluence of the chinese, while rail may still need some time to develop.
TA wise,looks like this is a build up happening, and a possible set up for a scale-up when prices breaks. and then of course there is deil's advocate me that feels that there is a possible swing down, where it will subsequently swing upwards and break the resistance of 1.72c( though that is less likely in my opinion).
For Income assets-(TA25/FA75) Good yield (> 3.5%) and increasing DPU, uptrending/stable prices (200ma). at discount to NAV (~0.7 to 0.8) Macro outlook is positive.
TA-wise, PE is 20 (high side) and price is 1.8xNAV. As per forecast (here) the counter has drifted upwards and now is building up before the $13 resistance. possible scale up will be around there, but the upside is quite limited?( i est at around $14) please wait and see see.
Accordia Golf Trust. FA-wise, this counter is still a good buy >8% yield, price of 0.8xNAV. thge fundamentals of the trust seems alright, no sudden decrease in interest in golf and possibly a spike in interest with olympics featuring it as an event( sounds damn lame if you ask me). The down sides mentioned before (here) are still present, and the effect of inclement weather has been forgotten by me.
TA-wise i need to look at the next week's price action. however i think there possibility of a consolidation after friday's sell off should be it, before it heads down due to XD day again. I'm still holding onto this counter since it is for dividends.
views as income asset, my average price is about 62c? and even with 3.6c , my yield is still respectable at 5+%. but i will put some thought into this counter :)
Chip Eng Seng. FA wise does not change much.
TA-wise, the break from counter trend was strong! and i am expecting next week to bound up and consolidate, so that presents me a set-up to buy more.
TA-wise, the break from counter trend was strong! and i am expecting next week to bound up and consolidate, so that presents me a set-up to buy more.
MapleTree GCC. FA-wise, PE~8, price ~0.8NAV presents itself as a good time to buy more of GCC ( possibility of scaling up).
TA wise, i have 2 opinion. i) likely consolidation, build-up before breakout out set-up. ii) swing down countertrend, then break the countertrend and continue ascending.
I will do some sniping on this counter for a possible 2nd scale up to capture more upsides.
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