Saturday, 7 January 2017

[review] Went to a 2017 market outlook talk

Foreword
I woke up at 8am this morning on a SATURDAY because i promised my friend to accompany him to a seminar that spoke about market outlook for 2017. Besides just looking at charts for that breakout or bull flag/pullback to make entries, it is good to listen to other traders/investors for their opinions and to study their strategies so that we are not just one-trick ponies.

With different playing style and strategy, we : i) have more tools at our disposal when the conditions are right; ii) know how to analyse the thinking of different category of investor/traders, this allows us to know what to do next. So i look forward to attending free talks organised by good traders, so do share with me if there are any upcoming, please!

TLDR: have a learning mindset and think critically, will help you stay sharp.

The Key points
1. Consider keeping cash in short-term bond fund to earn higher interest with higher liquidity, compared to putting in Fixed Dep/ saving accounts
Please consider possible downside, and that this is not 100% guaranteed

2. Do not buy when price drops, buy when it is more stabilized.
Low will get lower, it is very hard to catch at the lowest point, so it is best to enter at a start of uptrend, or when it stabilizes at least.

3. Banking sectors strongly tied to currency strength and interest rates, banks will do a good roaring trade 2017
awaits to be seen, but this seems to be the sentiment

4. Shipping/freighting rates have tripled (Baltic Dry index), big boy Hanjin has closed, this presents opportunity to the remaining shippers/shipbuilders/logistics infrastructure to appreciate
Not an expert or insider to the shipping biz, but the speaker gave some FA of the shipping industry. it sounded fairly reasonable, and i do see through TA that there are some truth to it.

5.Infrastructure spending, means drives commodities (coal & steel will appreciate), transporting ( shipping,freighting, ship building) will go on overdrive.
seems like reversal is here

6. Oil has hit above $50, double the all time low, reversing earlier down trend.
oil counters are reversing, find oil counters that survived, and enter it! more of those that deal directly with oil production

7. REITS and Properties sector is bad, as they are heavily dependent on loans, increase interest rates causes increase cost.
true that the cost will increase, but it is also good time to buy in some counters, due to good valuation. accumulate at lower price will give you better yield when times become better.

Outcomes
1. Will re-look my REITs portfolio:

  • see what industry they are focused at, e.g. if commodities is up, and the reits is tightly linked to commodities, there is no point to exit. but if for e.g. the reits is tied closely to a downtrending sector, then will exit
2. scan for prosperous sectors ( commodities, Oil & gas, banking) for long term bets. this is to divert into these sectors.

3. consider bondfunds/retail bonds to hold my monies

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